Banff, Jasper and Calgary record highest temperature increases, says Schulich study

It’s no longer a question of whether Alberta is getting hotter — and a half-century of detailed satellite climate data has led University of Calgary researchers to determine exactly how much hotter, down to the scale of an average parking stall.

Dr. Khan Rubayet Rahaman, PhD, and Dr. Quazi K. Hassan, PhD, specialize in geomatics at the Schulich School of Engineering. Their ongoing research has them poring over precise temperature measurements dating back to 1961, and ending with the most current available data from 2010.

Why? The researchers hope that pinpointing exactly how much extra heat Alberta is enduring, and where, may help government and industry officials in what is becoming a more urgent quest to mitigate the climbing mercury.

A wake-up call for decision-makers

“This is a wake-up call for Alberta, that now is the time to do something. Decision-makers in our cities and province can now see what is happening in a tangible way,” explains Hassan, who supervised the research.

“With this map they can see what has taken place over the past 60 years and what is going to happen over the next decade.”

Their work so far suggests more than two-thirds of Alberta experienced local warming trends ranging from one-quarter of a degree Celsius to more than 1°C. “Local governments could now have opportunities to understand more about their own jurisdiction area and the probable warming trend so that they could act quickly to negate potential, future risks posed by local warming,” reads their paper in the journal PLOS ONE. 

Banff, Jasper and Calgary on the high end of increased heat

The most significant rise was in Banff, Jasper, Calgary, Grande Prairie, and the northwestern part of the province — a hike in average temperature that the researchers suspect may be linked to increased population, tourism and industrial activities.

All of Alberta’s major cities saw a significant increase except Edmonton, which warmed about one-quarter of a degree since the early 1960s, possibly due to less urban development there.

Urban sprawl adds to the heat, because new communities are dependent on cars which require more roads and create greater traffic congestion, while removing green areas that can naturally cool.

Small increases a big deal

Even a small temperature increase is one with big repercussions, says Rahaman. “It is a big concern because Alberta is a very critical region, and we have 21 ecological sub-regions impacted by this temperature change,” he explains.

“If the temperature shifts even 0.25°C more, there may be problems with agriculture, ecosystems and uprooting of wildlife.

“This is a warning to adapt now. It’s a wake-up call, because there could be something like water stress coming, forest fire, natural disasters, and then agriculture practices will disappear.”

Paper just the start of detailed studies

Rahaman et al.’s first paper,  "Quantification of Local Warming Trend: A Remote Sensing-Based Approach," studied temperature change in Alberta at a spatial resolution of one kilometre. A follow-up paper will go into even more detail, allowing us to see the impact of climate change on cities like Calgary at a spatial resolution equal to the size of an average parking stall.

The first paper shows:

• About 68 per cent of Alberta experienced local warming trends since 1961 from 0.25°C to greater than 1.0°C
• There are warming trends (i.e., in the range 0.75°C to more than 1.0°C) in major cities, such as Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Calgary, Red Deer, Grande Prairie, and Fort McMurray possibly due to growth and infrastructure. Edmonton experienced relatively moderate warming of ~ 0.25°C.
• In Rocky Mountain areas (including Banff National Park) it was discerned that warming trends were significantly higher (0.75°C to more than 1.0°C) than average Alberta.
• For comparison: Global warming (including both land and sea surface temperature) was found to be 0.28°C during the period 1961–2010; Canada as a whole had gained an average warming of 1.4°C during the period 1948–2009; southern Canada had encountered an average warming between 0.5 to 1.5°C during the period 1900–1998.
• The Alberta study area, as part of Canadian Prairie provinces, had experienced an average regional warming between 0.9°C and 1.7°C.