Opinion: Canada-U.S. Trade War Will End Quickly

This op-ed was originally published in the Globe and Mail on Sept. 1, 2026.

As the latest U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods add to uncertainty around the trade relationship, Tim Sargent and Fen Osler Hampson argue in a Globe and Mail op-ed that Canada should take a patient approach to negotiations, as changing political and economic conditions in the United States will create pressure to resolve the trade war.

Sargent, Director of Economic Growth & Prosperity at the School of Public Policy, and Osler Hampson point to historical trade disputes, including the rollback of Smoot-Hawley tariffs in the 1930s, as evidence that economic losses and domestic political pressure can force governments back to the negotiating table. They argue that returning to negotiations now would be premature while the U.S. administration remains divided over its trade strategy.

The authors’ latest recommendations differ from their earlier call for Canada to take a more proactive approach to negotiations, reflecting evolving circumstances in the Canada-U.S. trade relationship over the past six weeks. 

The authors contend that the political and economic costs of tariffs are increasingly being felt by Americans through higher prices, sluggish growth and employment, rising borrowing costs and uncertainty in financial markets. Growing domestic opposition to Mr. Trump’s trade policies, combined with upcoming U.S. midterm elections and legal challenges to the tariffs, will eventually create an opportunity for Canada to negotiate from a stronger position.