Opinion: The Better Pathway

This article was originally published in The Globe and Mail on May 1, 2026

Martha Hall Findlay is director of the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy and holds the Palmer Chair in Public Policy.

The economist John Maynard Keynes is reputed to have said, “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?”

Still, this is a hard piece for me to write.

I devoted several years of my life to helping create the Oil Sands Pathways to Net Zero Alliance and its carbon capture, use and storage (CCUS) project. I care deeply about climate change and Canada “doing its part,” as do my former colleagues at the Pathways companies. That has not changed.

But as hard as it is, I am now recommending that Canada postpone the Pathways CCUS project. This is not the time. The world – and the facts – have changed dramatically.

The Pathways CCUS project would have the federal and provincial governments (which means taxpayers), together with the five major companies, contribute billions of dollars – through tax credits and cash – to put carbon dioxide in the ground. This will not generate revenue, only significant cost – with, frankly, a negligible effect on global emissions.

There are two reasons to change course.

The first is that Canada’s priorities are now clearly economic diversification, national defence, national security – nothing less than our sovereignty. We can no longer afford to do what we would like to do; we must allocate our limited resources to what we must do.

The second centres on our desire to “do our part” to combat climate change. This is a laudable sentiment, but Canada contributes only about 1.3 per cent of global greenhouse-gas emissions; we must be realistic about what Canada can effectively do to help what is a global challenge. The oil sands contribute about 12.4 per cent of Canada’s total emissions – a grand total of about 0.16 per cent of global greenhouse gasses. The proposed phase one of the Pathways CCUS project would likely reduce global emissions by less than 0.02 per cent, at a cost of billions.

We care, and we want to help the planet. But we have to be realistic in today’s changed world where oil is at US$100 a barrel, there are liquefied natural gas and jet fuel price shocks and, most importantly, there are serious longer-term geopolitical risks to the reliability of core oil- and gas-producing regions in the Persian Gulf and Russia.

So in this landscape, where should Canada invest?

Think of it this way: You own a house but the roof leaks, and the repair will cost $5,000. You have the ability to add another $10,000 to your mortgage. You could use $5,000 to fix the roof and spend the other $5,000 on DoorDash, a vacation, or even a donation to a worthy cause that you will feel good about. But you’re now further in debt, with no increase in the value of your house. Or you could use $5,000 to fix the roof, and use the other $5,000 to help finish the basement to make an apartment to generate additional income.

The Canadian economy is like a highly mortgaged house with a leaky roof. We have much to fix, and already a lot of debt. Instead of spending scarce resources on things that might make us feel good but which won’t do much to help a global challenge, we must generate more revenue for the things that we really need: economic diversification, national defence, our sovereignty and other things key to our society such as health care, education, clean water and air.

For Canada, more revenue needs more productive export infrastructure: energy pipelines, ports, mines and rail capacity for our goods. We have loved hearing, “The world needs more Canada.” But right now the world needs, and will need for many years to come, more of what Canada has. We have energy, food, fertilizer, uranium, minerals, forest products and more, produced by a responsible society with respect for human rights, the environment and the rule of law.

Now is the time to use these assets for Canada’s future.

But what of the recent, much-applauded memorandum of understanding between the federal and Alberta governments? It is historic and remains critical not only for our national economy but our national unity. So let’s build on it. Let’s reframe the effort into a better version of Pathways, one that uses its public-private and federal-provincial collaborations to support more energy production and the building, instead of a CCUS project, of a pipeline to sell more of what we have to the world.

This is also important for supporting our allies who are now clamouring for our energy.

The economic modelling is complicated by the role of carbon pricing and carbon credits, but I’m confident that the parties can work something out. The collaboration that is key to the MOU is consistent with Canadian history; without both public-private and federal-provincial co-operation, major nation-building projects would never have happened.

Canadians still care about climate change and we want to do our part. The CCUS project could still be an important project for Canada in time, but not right now. In the meantime, we could build on our CCUS efforts to date to develop future-proof emissions-reduction technologies that could themselves be revenue-generating for Canada.

However, we must focus on spending on the infrastructure we need now, to enhance our economic prosperity and greater economic independence, both of which are critical to ensuring our national sovereignty.

This is another nation-building moment for Canada – one for us to grasp if we are willing to be realistic and bold.